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Deal or no deal ... or no Brexit at all? 06/12/2018

Months of Brexit speculation and uncertainty came to a head in November as the UK and the EU finally succeeded in reaching a Brexit deal. European Commission (EC) President Jean-Claude Juncker said: “I invite those who have to ratify it in the UK House of Commons, to do so ... It is the only deal possible”.

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Brexit crunch time 06/12/2018

Corporate and macroeconomic newsflow faded into the background during November and Brexit took centre stage as the UK and EU finally agreed a Brexit deal. The withdrawal agreement sets out the terms of the divorce – including the issue of the Irish border – and has been agreed between the UK and the EU. The political declaration has been agreed “in... Read more...

Brexit: decision time 06/12/2018

UK government bonds and the pound remained hostages to Brexit in November as Prime Minister Theresa May finally agreed a Brexit deal with the EU. Although the agreement was backed by the Cabinet, it is doubtful whether it will manage to clear a vote in the House of Commons on 11 December. The EU has confirmed that it will not consider a renegotiati... Read more...

Brexit hangs in the balance 06/12/2018

UK share prices fell during November as months of Brexit negotiation between the UK and the EU finally culminated in an agreed deal. The agreement will go before the House of Commons for a vote on 11 December, but there are considerable doubts whether it will receive sufficient backing from UK MPs. As the EU shows no desire to restart negotiations,... Read more...

The Democrats take the House of Representatives 06/12/2018

Investor sentiment in the US was dominated by developments in politics, trade, and monetary policy during November. Unsurprisingly, the Democrats took control of the House of Representatives in the US midterm elections, while the Republicans retained control of the Senate. The outcome reduced the probability of further tax cuts; looking ahead, inve... Read more...

Italy remains defiant 06/12/2018

Brexit moved closer to a resolution during November as the EU and UK reached agreement on a deal. Chief EU Negotiator Michel Barnier commented: “Globally speaking, this deal is fair and balanced”. He went on to say: “We have found a compromise to avoid a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Both sides … want to avoid using the backstop... Read more...

Natural disasters dampen Japan's growth 06/12/2018

Japan’s economy shrank during the three months to September, contracting at an annualised rate of 1.2%. Spending and export activity were hampered over the summer by a series of natural disasters, and exports fell by 1.8% year on year during the period. On a more encouraging note, however, industrial production picked up sharply in October, rising ... Read more...

Investors hope for G20 trade resolution 06/12/2018

Emerging markets generally performed more strongly than the broader global equity market during November, boosted by hopes that the US and China might resolve their ongoing trade dispute at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, and by indications from the Federal Reserve that US interest rates are currently “just below” the level that would have a “neutr... Read more...

Brexit sentiment drives European bonds 06/12/2018

European government bond yields rose sharply in November on the news that the UK and EU had finally managed to thrash out a Brexit deal. European leaders backed the withdrawal agreement and political declaration, and the deal was subsequently supported by the UK Cabinet, although Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab resigned. Subsequently, however, yields... Read more...

US equities plummet in October 12/11/2018

Financial markets experienced a volatile October as investors became increasingly concerned about the outlook for global economic growth and corporate profits, the impending US midterm elections, and relations with Saudi Arabia following the death of prominent dissident Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

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