Invesco | What does the inverted US yield curve tell us?
The US yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007. What is the yield curve’s success in predicting previous US recessions? Is the inversion consistent with US data? What other reasons could be...
17th Sep 2019
The Week: Yield Curve
The US yield curve has finally inverted. It’s spooked equity markets, but does it necessarily mean recession is imminent?
15th Aug 2019
Macro Matters blog: US economy: Extending the cycle
The recent soft patch in growth and dovish shift from the Feb has made it less likely that the US enters recession next year.
Legal & General Investment Management
29th Mar 2019
The Yield Curve: Economic Outlook for 2019
The yield curve gap has been a powerful and accurate predictor of recessions over the last 40 years. This month, we examine the recent movements in the yield curve and the implications of the shape of...
19th Dec 2018
Key Indicators of a New Recession
It is widely believed that a low rate of unemployment and high rate of inflation are key signs of a healthy economy. While this may be the case, these characteristics are also the ones that are most l...
8th Aug 2017
Tue, 2nd, Feb
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