The Yield Curve: Economic Outlook for 2019
The yield curve gap has been a powerful and accurate predictor of recessions over the last 40 years. This month, we examine the recent movements in the yield curve and the implications of the shape of...
19th Dec 2018
Which Regions offer the Best Factor Returns
While factor return products are becoming more and more popular, investors may be interested if factor returns are higher in certain regions than others. This month, we investigate the size of factor...
12th Nov 2018
How share buybacks can boost returns
Companies regularly change their total amount of shares-in-issue through new share issuances or share buybacks. This month, we examine if changes in shares-in-issue have an impact on future returns. W...
16th Oct 2018
Do Stock Market Corrections Lead Recessions?
Investors will be aware that the current 10-year bull-run within the stock market is one of the longest in history. This period of positive performance has coincided with growth in western economies t...
21st Aug 2018
Why Do Factor Returns Exist?
The reasons for the existence of factor premiums is hotly debated. Those in the mispricing camp believe that factor premiums exist because investors misprice stocks, while those in the risk-based camp...
11th Jul 2018
Do Factor Returns work in Large Caps?
Smart beta and factor return strategies tend to invest in the liquid, large-cap segment of the market, ensuring that the products are scalable. The downside to this strategy is that large caps receive...
12th Jun 2018
How Factor Returns have Faded Around the World
The deterioration of factor return premiums is a major worry for smart beta investors. It raises the concern that the back-tested returns of the past will fail to materialise during the life of their...
16th May 2018
Examining Estoteric Factors: The Asset Growth Anomaly
As factor investing becomes more popular, the search intensifies for new factors. This month we examine a less well-known factor: The Asset Growth anomaly. We examine the claim that there is a premium...
12th Apr 2018
How the value factor performs in the market cycle
This month, we turn our attention to the value premium, which is one the most popular and well-known factors. We begin by examining the cumulative return of investing in two common value portfolios an...
12th Mar 2018
Forward Indicators of the Economy
Passive investing provides little protection in the event of a market downturn, as no active positioning is allowed. This means that many passive investors will wish to monitor market developmen...
5th Feb 2018
Momentum as a late-cycle factor
A couple of months ago, I examined the volatility factor and discovered that it tends to outperform during market corrections, but underperforms dramatically during recoveries. This month, I look at t...
9th Jan 2018
The Yield Curve Gap: Outlook for 2018
As the end of the year approaches, investors may wonder about the prospects for 2018. This month, we look at the yield curve gap for the US and 8 other major economies. The yield curve gap has been a...
12th Dec 2017
How well does the Low Volatility Factor work in Downturns?
The low volatility factor is becoming more popular as investors look for a potential safe haven in troubled markets, but has the low volatility factor provided protection in previous market crashes? T...
14th Nov 2017
Key Indicators of a New Recession
It is widely believed that a low rate of unemployment and high rate of inflation are key signs of a healthy economy. While this may be the case, these characteristics are also the ones that are most l...
8th Aug 2017
Tue, 2nd, Feb
Sign up to our Hub News E-Newsletter